Weaknesses

• Extremely oversaturated market. Thousands of loyalty programs exist, including those from credit cards, so competition is fierce.
  
• Web3 nature. The problem of Web3 adoption is quite serious. There are few examples of crypto companies that made their solutions popular among non-crypto users. That’s why BlackBird integrates with Privy to simplify the wallet creation process, but that might not be enough to onboard Web2 users.
  
• Regulation. The concept of BlackBird’s native token, $FLY, potentially tokenizing restaurants and even enabling fundraising for new restaurants from loyal customers might not be warmly received by the SEC. With most of BlackBird’s network of restaurants located in the US, they will likely face regulatory complications.
  
• Difficult international expansion. BlackBird's business is dependent on physical restaurants, challenging to onboard. They might stick to the US market but considering the US regulatory risks, it's better to be present in several key locations. Chains could be the solution for scaling to dozens of countries by partnering with restaurant groups worldwide. But that’s solvable by scaling through HoReCa chains and become global at a reasonable cost,
  
• Limited potential for the token due to modest utilities where rewards are paid in tokens to restaurants and users. Most users (who are already farming FLY) will sell them in the secondary market rather than using them inside the ecosystem.
  

Opportunities

• Real World Asset Tokenization is likely to be a huge trend in the near future. Restaurants alone are a trillion-dollar market. If BlackBird can succeed here they could easily expand it to hotels, and revolutionize the industry as a result.
  
• A strong team and legendary VCs backing the company open up almost endless opportunities to partner with large corporations, crypto market players, world-famous celebrities, and famous restaurants.
  
• BlackBird could be a potential acquisition target for a company like Chase or AMEX in the next 1-2 years for 1 billion +. And to be host, Instead of pursuing a listing on platforms like Coinbase or Binance, which is obviously a plan, BlackBird might choose to expand its business, secure an additional funding round of around $50-75MM in the next 1-2 years, and then consider being acquired by a large entity like AMEX, Chase, or a similar industry heavyweight for around $2-$5 billion. This approach could effectively circumvent issues related to liquidity and most regulatory complications. Furthermore, it may potentially result in a higher return for all shareholders.
  

Red Flags

• Regulation. If the SEC decides to stop BlackBird's operations, they can easily do that. The fact that BlackBird operates mainly in the US and most of their connections are there as well creates significant uncertainty.
  
• Oversaturated market. There are already thousands of reward systems and loyalty programs. All of them spend big dollars on attracting customers. Hence, to compete, you have to spend a lot and figure out how to retain your users in the long term.
  

Thanks for reading this. We wish the best for BlackBird and hope they can successfully maneuver the obstacles on their way and build a successful business.