Overvalued, Episode 1:

Is Solana Truly A

$32 Billion Company?

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Today, we're diving into an analysis of Solana's (SOL's) notable growth, seeking to answer the question: Is Solana overvalued?

Solana's massive growth spurt, by some accounts, doesn't have a reasonable explanation. Concerns have risen due to its outperformance of the market by a substantial margin. The key factors driving this bull run include the launch of Firedancer's testnet, a new client aimed at enhancing speed and reliability while reducing hardware requirements for validators, as well as the announcement of the availability of the network's data set on Google Cloud BigQuery.

However, to answer the question, "Is Solana Overvalued?", we must delve into key metrics. As always, it's challenging to say with absolute certainty, but some metrics prompt questions.

According to DappRadar, Solana's DApp volume hit $832 million in the last 30 days. This figure is overshadowed by Binance Chain's $13.5 billion, Polygon's $8.45 billion, and Avalanche's $1.32 billion.

Furthermore, calculations using network numbers suggest that Solana may be faltering in comparison to its peers. Solana's leading decentralized exchange (DEX), Raydium, recorded only 17,380 active addresses in the last 30 days. Likewise, Solana’s most popular game, Star Atlas, saw 12,420 unique addresses. In contrast, Binance BNB Chain's DEX, PancakeSwap, registered 513,060 active addresses in the last 30 days, and its game Stargate boasted 106,400 users. Avalanche's DEX, Trader Joe, accrued 54,130 active addresses, while its leading game, Galaxe, had 32,040 unique addresses.

The Fully Diluted Valuations of chains such as Binance ($39 billion), Solana ($32 billion), Polygon ($8 billion), and Avalanche ($9 billion) suggest that Solana is potentially overvalued relative to its key competitors concerning network activity and developer popularity. Solana’s activity numbers are more comparable to Avalanche and Polygon rather than Binance's BNB Chain. Yet, Avalanche’s and Polygon's fully diluted valuations are merely $9 billion contrasted with Solana’s $32 billion, or in other words, 3.5 times lower.

In conclusion, we must remember that we operate within the cryptocurrency market - possibly one of the most irrational, uncertain, and unpredictable markets in the world. Although all the numbers suggest that Solana is heavily overvalued, we cannot discount the possibility of it rising even higher - we all remember Solana trading at $250 per token, which is four times lower than now. As food for thought, keep in mind that while Solana is a technically interesting project and one of the most fast and affordable chains with promising scaling potential (such as the possibility of becoming a main chain for payments, given its ongoing pilot with Visa), it is already a $32 billion company.

Lastly, this analysis is not investment advice but merely our perspective and opinion on Solana (SOL).

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